Will an asteroid hit the moon? We ask our space reporter.
2024 YR4 was discovered at the end of last year and was quickly assigned the highest probability of hitting Earth of all known asteroids. At its most perilous, it had a 1-in-32 chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Further observations reduced the probability of an Earth impact to effectively zero, but there remains a 4 per cent chance of the asteroid slamming into the moon, which could put thousands of critical satellites around the planet at risk from lunar shrapnel.
Astronomers are running out of time to decide whether to prevent asteroid 2024 YR4 from hitting the moon in 2032. A small observing window with the James Webb Space Telescope will open in February, and new data could see the chance of an impact increase to more than 30 per cent, putting satellites or future lunar infrastructure at significant risk.
